As of the third quarter of 2025, the domestic wood market in China has shown signs of small-scale price increases. The price of 3.9-meter grade A Radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port in Shandong Province has risen by more than 8% compared to the mid-year low. With the arrival of the rainy autumn weather, the combined effect of restricted international supply and domestic transportation constraints is likely to push wood prices into a new upward trend. Please provide the text you would like translated.
The “inherent deficiency” in the international supply chain has already set the stage for price hikes.
As the main supplier of Okoume sawn timber to China, Gabon has fallen into an industry predicament due to frequent rainfall: the delivery price of sawn Okoume has climbed to 50,000 CFA francs per cubic meter, with transportation costs accounting for as much as 40%. Power shortages have led to local factories operating on a single shift for a long time. Coupled with cumbersome customs procedures and increased export tariffs, the volume of wood exports to China has significantly contracted. Meanwhile, major suppliers such as New Zealand have entered the seasonal shipping off-season, with the volume of logs shipped in July and August dropping by more than 20% compared to the previous month. It is expected that the volume arriving in China in the third quarter will continue to decline. Under the influence of these dual factors, the import volume of logs and sawn timber in China from January to May decreased by 13.3% year-on-year, and the tightness in the supply chain has become evident. Please provide the text you would like translated.
The rainy autumn weather is becoming a “catalyst” for price hikes.
The wood industry chain is highly sensitive to weather conditions. The rainy season imposes constraints on all aspects of logging, transportation, and storage: In the inland rainforests of Africa, heavy rainfall makes the forest floor muddy, reducing logging efficiency by over 30%, and increasing the transportation cost by 20,000 CFA francs per cubic meter. In the main production areas in southern China, frequent rainfall has disrupted road transportation, causing short-distance wood transportation prices in some regions to rise by 15%. More importantly, rain increases the moisture content of logs, raising the risk of mold during storage, which forces traders to speed up turnover and increase the premium. Historical data shows that during the rainy autumn of 2024, the price of construction square timbers in Guangdong rose by 7.2% in a single month, confirming the transmission effect of weather factors. Please provide the text you would like translated.
The resonance between cost and demand will strengthen the momentum of price hikes.
From the cost perspective, the tightening of environmental policies has raised the cost of compliant logging, and the investment in green factory renovations by domestic wood processing enterprises has increased the energy consumption cost per unit of output by 4.1%. Coupled with the rise in logistics costs due to fluctuations in oil prices, the cost pressure in the industrial chain continues to be passed on. Although the demand side is held back by the sluggish real estate market, furniture factories and decoration enterprises have entered a restocking cycle, and the average daily outbound volume of logs in the East China region has rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. Especially in the high-end wood sector, the growth in quality demand driven by residents’ consumption upgrades has kept the prices of species such as spruce above 1,500 yuan per cubic meter. Please provide the text you would like translated.
Although the current port inventory remains at a relatively high level of 3.35 million cubic meters, the trend of supply contraction and cost increase is irreversible. With the continuous autumn rain, the pressure at each link of the wood industry chain will gradually be transformed into price momentum. It is expected that the price increase of major wood species at the end of the third quarter will expand to 10% – 15%. The wood-related import and export and production industries need to do a good job in inventory management and cost control.
